Do US adults support Trump's agenda? Here's what an AP-NORC poll shows

WASHINGTON — (AP) — Donald Trump will start implementing a far-reaching agenda when he takes office for the second time on Monday, but a poll finds that despite his claims of an "unprecedented and powerful mandate," the incoming Republican president lacks broad support for some of his top priorities.

Just over half of US adults favor eliminating taxes on earnings from tips, according to the survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, but some of his other pledges — like pulling out of the Paris climate agreement, increasing oil drilling on federal lands and imposing new tariffs — are less widely favored.

There is room for opinion to shift on many of the proposals, since a sizable share of Americans hold a neutral view. But some are more clearly unpopular. A majority of U.S. adults, for instance, oppose pardoning most people who participated in the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, indicating that one of the actions Trump has promised to undertake quickly will likely be unwelcome to many Americans.

Here's what Americans think about some of the major actions that Trump has promised — including some that could start to take effect as early as Monday.

Trump has long promised to deport millions of people in the country illegally, although he fell far short of this goal in his first term. In his second four years in the White House, though, he has pledged to begin the largest deportation program in U.S. history, which could begin as soon as he's sworn in.

The poll finds that targeted deportations of immigrants who have been convicted of a crime would be popular, even if they involved immigrants who are in the country legally, but that support doesn't extend to mass deportations.

About 8 in 10 U.S. adults favor deporting all immigrants living in the U.S. illegally who have been convicted of a violent crime – including about two-thirds who are strongly in favor – and about 7 in 10 support deporting all immigrants living in the U.S. legally who have been convicted of a violent crime.

Deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally and have not been convicted of a crime is a much more divisive proposal. US adults are slightly more likely to oppose this policy than to favor it, and only about 4 in 10 are in support.

Tariffs on foreign goods entering the country are one of Trump's proposed fixes for high food prices and illegal immigration, which are issues that motivated many of his voters in November.

According to the AP-NORC poll, though, almost half of US adults “somewhat” or “strongly” oppose imposing a tariff, also known as an import tax, on all goods brought into the U.S. from other countries. About 3 in 10 are in favor, and about one-quarter are neutral, saying they neither favor nor oppose this policy, which indicates that opinion could move in either direction if the tariffs are implemented.

Republicans are much likelier than Democrats and independents to support broad tariffs, but a significant share — about 4 in 10 — are either opposed or unsure. Just over half of Republicans favor imposing a tariff on all goods brought into the U.S.

Trump promised throughout his campaign to issue pardons to many of the more than 1,500 people charged with crimes for their actions related to the deadly Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, saying he would "most likely do it very quickly" in a December interview on NBC's "Meet the Press."

But even if he doesn't use his clemency power on behalf of all the rioters, as some of his supporters have suggested, pardoning many of the participants would be an unpopular move.

According to the AP-NORC poll, about 2 in 10 US adults “somewhat” or “strongly” favor pardoning most people who participated in the attack. A much larger share — about 6 in 10 — “somewhat” or “strongly" oppose this move, including half who are strongly opposed, and about 2 in 10 are neutral.

Members of Trump's own party are divided on the pardons, although they're more likely to support them overall. About 4 in 10 Republicans favor pardoning many of the Jan. 6 participants, while about 3 in 10 are neutral and about 3 in 10 are opposed.

A pledge to exclude workers' tips from federal taxes came up frequently on the campaign trail and was also embraced by Trump's opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. And although it could be costly and difficult to enact, it's one of Trump's campaign promises with the highest support from Americans overall.

The poll found that just over half of US adults “somewhat” or “strongly” favor eliminating taxes on earnings from tips, while about one-quarter are neutral and about 2 in 10 are opposed.

The proposal is more popular with Republicans than Democrats, and it also has particularly high levels of support with adults under age 30.

Trump has promised to establish American "energy dominance" in part by boosting oil and gas drilling, including on federal lands.

U.S. adults aren't so sure about it. The AP-NORC poll found that about one-third of Americans “somewhat” or “strongly” favor increasing oil drilling on federal lands, while about 4 in 10 are opposed. The rest — about one-quarter — say they neither favor nor oppose this move.

Increasing oil drilling is broadly popular with Republicans but not with Democrats or independents.

In his first term, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and although President Joe Biden immediately rejoined it upon taking office, Trump has promised to pull out a second time when he takes office.

About half of Americans “somewhat” or “strongly” oppose that action, and even Republicans aren't overwhelmingly in favor, according to the poll. Only about 2 in 10 US adults “somewhat” or “strongly” in favor of withdrawing from the Paris agreement, while about one-quarter are neutral.

Much of the opposition comes from Democrats, but Republicans display some ambivalence as well. Slightly less than half of Republicans are in favor, while about 3 in 10 are opposed.

A judge recently struck down a rule from the Democratic Biden administration expanding protections for LGBTQ+ students, which Trump had promised to end on his first day, after making anti-transgender themes central to his campaign.

But although there were some signs that his messaging struck a chord with voters, the new poll found that opposition is higher than support for eliminating protections for transgender students under Title IX, the federal law that prohibits any high school or college that receives federal funds from discriminating on the basis of gender.

Almost half of U.S. adults “somewhat” or “strongly” oppose getting rid of these protections, while about 3 in 10 are in favor and the rest are neutral.

As a government shutdown loomed at the end of last year, Trump proposed raising or even eliminating the debt ceiling, a limit set by lawmakers that determines how much the federal government can borrow to pay its existing bills. The issue could reemerge soon if Trump pushes the expensive tax cuts that he promised on the campaign trail.

In general, Trump's stance isn't popular, although there's some room for opinion to shift. About half of U.S. adults oppose eliminating the debt ceiling, while about one-quarter are in favor and about 3 in 10 are neutral.

But in another unusual moment of bipartisan accord, Democrats are only slightly more likely than Republicans to oppose getting rid of the debt ceiling.

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,147 adults was conducted Jan. 9-13, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

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