As the free-agent and trade markets move along and teams continue trying to improve this winter, front offices are determining not just what their rosters need but also which players they think are the best fit for their team. In some cases, that means making a choice between similar options, perhaps with a key difference or two.
Below are a few such pairings, with a look at why a team might want one over the other, or vice versa.
Third base: Nolan Arenado vs. Alex Bregman
The two players who seem to be tethered this offseason are the two primary third basemen on the market, Nolan Arenado and Alex Bregman. While a team would have to swing a trade with St. Louis for Arenado, which isn't going to be easy given his no-trade clause, the free agent Bregman could sign with any team.
Bregman, 30, is clearly the better player at this point in his career. While his offensive numbers have taken steps back in recent seasons, his 124 wRC+ still ranks sixth among third basemen (min. 500 games) since 2020. Meanwhile, Arenado, 33, is coming off his worst season in terms of offensive production since his rookie year in 2010.
The Yankees, Red Sox and Astros all have a need for a third baseman and have each been connected to both players, though Arenado reportedly blocked a trade to Houston this week. How much each team is willing to spend to fill the position will likely be the determining factor in how this plays out. Bregman comes at a much higher price, likely in the $30 million AAV range, seeing as he has more peak years ahead of him and a consistent record of offensive production with above-average defensive ability.
Arenado has three years and $74 million remaining on his current deal, and the Cardinals might have to eat some of that money in a trade. Because while Arenado is still a well-above-average defender at third, his numbers on offense have taken a few steps back. He’s just two seasons removed from a third-place NL MVP finish, but the team that trades for him will be making a gamble that the 10-time Gold Glove winner will have a bounce-back in ‘25.
First base: Pete Alonso vs. Christian Walker
When it comes to the top of the first-base market, there's a clear gap between Pete Alonso, Christian Walker and the rest of this year's class. Alonso, 30, is the big name that comes with a résumé of big-time production and accolades. Only Aaron Judge has more home runs in MLB since Alonso's debut in 2019, when he won NL Rookie of the Year. And if this is the conclusion of his tenure with the Mets, it ended on a high note, with several memorable home runs in the postseason.
Walker, 33, was a bit of a late bloomer, having started his career in Baltimore before finding a home in Arizona. But the first baseman, who is one of the more under-the-radar players in the game, has set himself up nicely entering free agency for the first time. While he doesn’t have a lengthy offensive record like Alonso, he’s no slouch when it comes to power. Walker’s 95 homers the past three seasons rank third among MLB first basemen.
But perhaps the biggest advantage for Walker here is his elite defensive ability. He is arguably the best defensive first baseman in baseball, leading the league in outs above average and defensive runs saved since 2022. He won the NL Gold Glove at the position the past three years.
When it comes to pure power production, there aren’t many players in baseball who can deliver at an elite level like Alonso, and he has age on his side entering his age-30 season. But Walker’s all-around ability has definitely enhanced his market and might make him more appealing to some teams than Alonso, who despite his prodigious power is more of a one-dimensional player.
Starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty vs. Sean Manaea
2024 felt like a make-or-break year for Flaherty, who after signing with the Tigers on a one-year deal needed to show that he could stay healthy and be a big part of a starting staff again. Over the course of the season, Flaherty, 29, proved his durability while tapping into the electric stuff that had helped him finish fourth in NL Cy Young voting in 2019. Moved by Detroit at July's trade deadline, the right-hander finished 2024 with his hometown Los Angeles Dodgers, becoming a World Series champion.
Meanwhile, Sean Manaea’s 2024 season took many by surprise because after average seasons in ‘22 and 23, in which he made only 10 starts, he turned in arguably the best season of his career this past year. With some tweaks to his delivery, the 32-year-old southpaw spun a 3.47 ERA in a career-high 181 2/3 innings and struck out 184 batters. Not only was his success big on an individual level, but he was also one of the driving forces behind a Mets team that reached the NLCS.
When it comes to Flaherty and Manaea, it’s all about upside. Both pitchers found another level in their walk year, and now the question is will they be able to sustain that over the long haul? Any team that signs either of them has to feel good about its ability to continue their development and recent success. Both starters' ability to get swing-and-miss consistently will boost their value on the market, and if they can stay healthy, it’ll go a long way toward their projected future. The reality is that where these two end up will depend greatly on their fit with an existing rotation.
For free-agency discussions, the biggest difference between the two, aside from the age gap, is the fact that Manaea received a qualifying offer from the Mets and Flaherty did not from the Dodgers. This means that any team that signs the left-hander will forfeit a draft pick. And while Manaea’s potential greatly outweighs that of an unproven draft pick, teams in recent years have been hesitant to give up that compensation, leading such free agents to wait on the market.
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